Can Donald Trump save Viktor Orbán?

BUDAPEST — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is facing the toughest election of his 16-year rule, and U.S. President Donald Trump and his MAGA movement are mobilizing to help him.

Polls suggest the Hungarian leader is currently trailing his former ally-turned-challenger Péter Magyar, who has capitalized on voter frustration over record inflation, economic malaise and a string of political scandals. With Orbán’s dominance suddenly in question, Trump’s administration and leading MAGA figures have moved to bolster the man they regard as their most dependable ideological ally in Europe.

For MAGA luminaries, Orbán isn’t merely a partner — he’s an inspiration. His hardline stance on migration, his battles against universities and “woke” cultural institutions, his hostility toward Brussels and skepticism toward Ukraine have long been held up as a governance model by American conservatives.

“We were Trump before Trump,” boasts the website of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Budapest. And in June 2024, U.S. Vice President JD Vance openly tipped his hat to Orbán, saying the Hungarian prime minister had “made smart decisions that we could learn from in the U.S.”

And learn they have. “We have entered the policy-writing system of Trump’s team. We have deep involvement there,” bragged Orbán at a rally in Hungary during the 2024 White House race. Hungarian government and pro-Orbán think tanks, such as the Századvég Foundation and the Danube Institute, have also had a long ongoing relationship with Trump-aligned think tanks like the Heritage Foundation, sharing research, ideas and scholars.

Above all, the U.S. president’s allies praise Orbán not just for his policies but for his steadfastness in contrast to other MAGA-friendly politicians — like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whom they dismiss for supporting Ukraine and for her willingness to work with former President Joe Biden between Trump’s two terms. “Orbán went out of his way to remain loyal to Donald Trump when he was out of power and written off politically,” said Benjamin Harnwell, the right-hand man of former Trump strategist Steve Bannon.

And now MAGA is returning the favor by pulling out the stops for the man Trump once described in a lengthy social media post as “a truly strong and powerful Leader … delivering phenomenal results” for Hungary.

On a recent visit to Budapest, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio further underlined Trump’s endorsement, saying U.S. ties with Hungary were entering a “golden era” and promising financial support for the country if needed — but only if Orbán remains in power. “President Trump is deeply committed to your success, because your success is our success,” Rubio said.

This visit from Washington’s top diplomat shows just how seriously the administration is taking Hungary’s April election. “For MAGA, the two most important elections this year are those in Hungary and the midterms in the United States,” said Timothy Ash of Britain’s Chatham House. And John McLaughlin, a veteran Republican strategist who worked on all three of Trump’s presidential campaigns, has been polling for Orbán.

This is all because a defeat for the Hungarian prime minister would be a blow to the global populist movement, even as Washington ramps up support for other like-minded political actors across Europe.

“It would be seen as an ideological or intellectual setback if he lost,” said Frank Furedi, an Orbán ally who heads the Brussels branch of the Hungarian government-backed Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC). “You have to remember that Orbán plays a disproportionately influential role in terms of the outlook of many of these parties and their leaders, who have a strong affection for him,” he added. “I think a defeat would have an impact at least in the short term, in terms of influencing continent-wide political dynamics.”

Trump card

Three weeks before the election, MAGA luminaries and national conservative and populist stars from across Europe are all set to gather in the Hungarian capital for a CPAC conference organized by the American Conservative Union — the fifth one since 2022.

Orbán is hoping the U.S. president will be in attendance.

Trump has a standing invitation to the event, and the Hungarian leader has made no secret he’d like nothing more. But while Trump teased a visit in January, he has so far remained noncommittal.

Shortly before heading to Washington for last month’s inaugural meeting of Trump’s Board of Peace, Orbán reminded Hungarian radio the U.S. president “owes him” a visit. Though, he acknowledged, “things are changing so rapidly that we can’t plan even two weeks ahead.” 

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran has only added to the uncertainty.

Orbán has so far discreetly endeavored to distance himself from the Middle East war, delicately noting at a recent campaign rally that the president had sought his opinion ahead of the bombing of Iran, “given we [Hungary] have relations with Iran and friendly relations with Israel.” 

He said that what’s happening isn’t what he’d advised, but added that the U.S. leader and Chinese President Xi Jinping will discuss serious measures to “stabilize the world’s state” when Trump visits Beijing, as he is expected to do later this month.

Still, it’s unclear just how much MAGA’s support has actually aided the Hungarian prime minister. There’s no evidence that Rubio’s visit shifted opinion polls, noted Chatham House’s Ash. In fact, a subsequent poll published after his visit suggested Hungary’s center-right opposition widened its lead in February.

Meanwhile, as Orbán has sought to portray the election as a referendum on the war in Ukraine and paint his challenger as a Brussels stooge, Magyar has successfully shifted the conversation to bread-and-butter issues. 

His Tisza party currently enjoys a nine-point lead over Orbán’s Fidesz party, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, and it has done this by channeling anger over inflation and economic mismanagement. Long vulnerable to external shocks, the Hungarian forint has come under renewed pressure following the recent geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and this has raised fears of higher energy prices and another inflationary spike, just as price growth had begun to cool.

There’s also little agreement among commentators as to what extent further MAGA reinforcement — or even a visit from Trump — could rally support for Orbán. “I think it will fire up his supporters and firm up his existing voter base. Whether it makes any difference to anybody else or convinces people to vote one way or the other is an open question,” Furedi said.

Trump isn’t in the habit of investing political capital in causes he believes are doomed. So, if Hungary’s polls continue to point toward an Orbán defeat, and the prime minister fails to regain momentum in his campaign’s final stretch, he may discover there are limits to how far — and how long — the U.S. president is prepared to go, even for a one of MAGA’s most celebrated international allies.